Ridgway, Mark S

Effective population size (Ne) is a foundational concept in conservation biology, in part due to its relationship to the adaptive potential of populations. Although Ne is often estimated for wild populations, it is rarely calibrated against actual population estimates (Nc) other than to produce Ne/Nc ratios. This project used demographic and genetic data for from two intensively-studied populations of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Ontario's Experimental Lake Area (ELA) as baseline data for evaluating the performance of multiple Ne estimators. Several temporal and single-time (point) genetic methods of estimating Ne were compared against demographic Ne estimates and known population data, as well as variation and consistency within and among Ne estimators. Changes in genetic Ne estimates over time were also compared to changes in demographic structure and fluctuating census estimates, including the effect of an experimentally manipulated population bottleneck on demographic and genetic Ne estimates during population reduction and recovery. Sampling years that included the most pre-, during and post-bottleneck data revealed the lowest estimates using temporal estimators (Ne = 16 to 18) despite pre- and post-bottleneck census estimates of 591 and 565. Estimation of Ne had increasingly tighter confidence intervals as sample sizes approached the actual number of breeding individuals in each population. Performance differences among the tested estimators highlight their potential biases and reliance on different assumptions, illustrating their potential value and caveats for assessing adaptive potential of wild populations.

Author Keywords: Effective Population Size, Experimental Lakes Area, Fish Population Assessment, Lake Trout, Population Demographics, Population Genetics

Long-term studies of demographic processes such as survival and abundance conducted in unexploited systems provide unique insight into the natural population ecology of fish, but are rarely available. I used historical tagging records of a sanctuary population of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Algonquin Park, Ontario to investigate long-term population dynamics in an unexploited population. Adult brook trout in Mykiss Lake (23.5ha) were surveyed and tagged biannually (May and October) between 1990 and 2004. Open-population capture-mark-recapture models were used to test the importance of time, size, sex and season on estimates of apparent survival and abundance. Seasonal population growth and recruitment were estimated and compared with large-scale climate indices. Time-dependent survival and abundance estimates fluctuated, with distinct periods of increase. Population growth and recruitment were positively correlated with summer NAO and ENSO values, whereas survival was negatively correlated. Seasonally, larger individuals experienced higher apparent survival during winter and decreased survival during summer. These findings provide valuable insights into the natural demography of unexploited brook trout populations, and should help inform sustainable management of inland fisheries.

Author Keywords: capture-mark-recapture, long-term, population dynamics, Salvelinus fontinalis, seasonal variation, survival