Range-Based Component Models for Conditional Volatility and Dynamic Correlations

Abstract

Volatility modelling is an important task in the financial markets. This paper first evaluates the range-based DCC-CARR model of Chou et al. (2009) in modelling larger systems of assets, vis-à-vis the traditional return-based DCC-GARCH. Extending Colacito, Engle and Ghysels (2011), range-based volatility specifications are then employed in the first-stage of DCC-MIDAS conditional covariance estimation, including the CARR model of Chou et al. (2005). A range-based analog to the GARCH-MIDAS model of Engle, Ghysels and Sohn (2013) is also proposed and tested - which decomposes volatility into short- and long-run components and corrects for microstructure biases inherent to high-frequency price-range data. Estimator forecasts are evaluated and compared in a minimum-variance portfolio allocation experiment following the methodology of Engle and Colacito (2006). Some consistent inferences are drawn from the results, supporting the models proposed here as empirically relevant alternatives. Range-based DCC-MIDAS estimates produce efficiency gains over DCC-CARR which increase with portfolio size.

Author Keywords: asset allocation, DCC MIDAS, dynamic correlations, forecasting, portfolio risk management, volatility

    Item Description
    Type
    Contributors
    Creator (cre): Swanson, Stephen
    Thesis advisor (ths): Cater, Bruce
    Thesis advisor (ths): Pollanen, Marco
    Degree granting institution (dgg): Trent University
    Date Issued
    2017
    Date (Unspecified)
    2017
    Place Published
    Peterborough, ON
    Language
    Extent
    195 pages
    Rights
    Copyright is held by the author, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise noted.
    Subject (Topical)
    Local Identifier
    TC-OPET-10469
    Publisher
    Trent University
    Degree