Economics

Universities produce a significant and increasing share of basic research that is later commercialized by firms. We argue that the university's prominence as a producer of basic research is the result of a differential efficiency in research production that cannot be replicated by firms or individual agents - teaching. By using research accomplishments to signal knowledge and attract tuition-paying students, universities are uniquely positioned to undertake certain types of research projects. However, in a market for innovation without patent rights, a significant and increasing number of basic research projects, that are social welfare improving, cannot be initiated by firms or universities. The extension of patent rights to university-generated research elegantly redresses this issue and leaves us to ponder important questions about the future of our innovation-driven economies.

Author Keywords: Innovation, Intellectual Property Rights, Research, Science Technology and Innovation Policy

This thesis addresses the interconnectedness of environmental sustainability and economic sustainability. There is evidence from the Canadian experience that market economies are extremely dependent upon consumption - the most significant factor in determining the overall level of economic activity and economic growth. Therefore, from this perspective, several periods of declining consumption would create a 'vicious cycle' [Kaldor, 1967] of economic decline that would be politically unsustainable. The analysis here shows that income inequality drives changes in debt-fueled consumption, and consequently, debt influences consumption. The role of income inequality as a mediating channel of sustainability via the borrowing/lending model presents evidence that 'conventional' debt servicing behaviour in the macro-economy can support steady-state economic growth that is, in economic terms, sustainable. Solving the conflict between the environment and the economy lies in private and public investments in new technologies and, most importantly, new social institutions that facilitate economic, political, and environmental, sustainability.

Author Keywords: Consumption, Economic Growth, Household Debt, Income Inequality, Sustainability

Comprehending the dynamics of infectious diseases is very important in formulating public health policies to tackling their prevalence. Mathematical epidemiology (ME) has played a very vital role in achieving the above. Nevertheless, classical mathematical epidemiological models do not explicitly model the behavioural responses of individuals in the presence of prevalence of these diseases. Economic epidemiology (EE) as a field has stepped in to fill this gap by integrating economic and mathematical concepts within one framework. This thesis investigated two issues in this area. The methods employed are the standard linear analysis of stability of dynamical systems and numerical simulation. Below are the investigations and the findings of this thesis:

Firstly, an investigation into the stability properties of the equilibria of EE

models is carried out. We investigated the stability properties of modified EE systems studied by Aadland et al. [6] by introducing a parametric quadratic utility function into the model, thus making it possible to model the maximum number of contacts made by rational individuals to be determined by a parameter. This parameter in particular influences the level of utility of rational individuals. We have shown that if rational individuals have a range of possible contacts to choose from, with the maximum of the number of contacts allowable for these individuals being dependent on a parameter, the variation in this parameter tends to affect the stability properties of the system. We also showed that under the assumption of permanent recovery for

disease coupled with individuals observing or not observing their immunity, death

and birth rates can affect the stability of the system. These parameters also have

effect on the dynamics of the EE SIS system.

Secondly, an EE model of syphilis infectivity among &ldquo men who have sex with men &rdquo (MSM) in detention centres is developed in an attempt at looking at the effect of behavioural responses on the disease dynamics among MSM. This was done by explicitly incorporating the interplay of the biology of the disease and the behaviour of the inmates. We investigated the stability properties of the system under rational expectations where we showed that: (1) Behavioural responses to the prevalence of

the disease affect the stability of the system. Therefore, public health policies have the tendency of putting the system on indeterminate paths if rational MSM have complete knowledge of the laws governing the motion of the disease states as well as a complete understanding on how others behave in the system when faced with risk-benefit trade-offs. (2) The prevalence of the disease in the long run is influenced by incentives that drive the utility of the MSM inmates. (3) The interplay between the dynamics of the biology of the disease and the behavioural responses of rational MSM tends to put the system at equilibrium quickly as compared to its counterpart (that is when the system is solely dependent on the biology of the disease) when subjected to small perturbation.

Author Keywords: economic and mathematical epidemiology models, explosive path, indeterminate-path stability, numerical solution, health gap, saddle-path stability, syphilis,

Health literature has long noted a positive correlation between health and levels of education. Two competing theories have been advanced to explain this phenomenon: (1) education "causes" health by allowing individuals to process complex information and act on it; and, (2) education and health are merely correlated through some third underlying characteristic.

Determining which of these two theories is correct is of importance to public policy. But that task is empirically difficult because, from the standard, static perspective, the theories are observationally equivalent.

We exploit a way in which the two theories have different implications regarding the sort of behaviour we should observe over time. We use smoking as a measure of health behaviour and find that smoking rates between "high" and "low" educated individuals expand when information is hard to process, and then contract as it becomes more easily processable. This approach is then repeated using physical activity as a measure of health-related behaviour to address limitations of the smoking model.

Our novel approach to estimating the differences in the behavioural responses to changes in the processability of health-related information, across education groups, provides strong evidence in support of the view that education and health are causally linked.

Author Keywords: applied statistics, education, health economics, public health, public policy, smoking

Research and development activities conducted at universities and firms fuel economic growth

and play a key role in the process of innovation. Specifically, prior research has investigated the

widespread university-to-firm research development path and concluded that universities are

better suited for early stage of research while firms are better positioned for later stages. This

thesis aims to present a novel explanation for the pervasive university-to-firm research

development path. The model developed uses game theory to visualize and analyze interactions

between a firm and university under different strategies. The results reveal that as academic

research signals knowledge it helps attract tuition paying students. Generating these tuition

revenues is facilitated by university research discoveries, which, once published, a firm can build

upon to make new innovative products. In an environment of weak intellectual property rights,

moreover, the university-to-firm research development path enables firms to bypass the hefty

costs that are involved in basic research activities. The model also provides a range of solution

scenarios where a university and firm may find it viable to initiate a research line.

Author Keywords: Game theory, Intellectual property rights, Nash equilibrium, Research and development, University to-firm research path

Volatility modelling is an important task in the financial markets. This paper first evaluates the range-based DCC-CARR model of Chou et al. (2009) in modelling larger systems of assets, vis-à-vis the traditional return-based DCC-GARCH. Extending Colacito, Engle and Ghysels (2011), range-based volatility specifications are then employed in the first-stage of DCC-MIDAS conditional covariance estimation, including the CARR model of Chou et al. (2005). A range-based analog to the GARCH-MIDAS model of Engle, Ghysels and Sohn (2013) is also proposed and tested - which decomposes volatility into short- and long-run components and corrects for microstructure biases inherent to high-frequency price-range data. Estimator forecasts are evaluated and compared in a minimum-variance portfolio allocation experiment following the methodology of Engle and Colacito (2006). Some consistent inferences are drawn from the results, supporting the models proposed here as empirically relevant alternatives. Range-based DCC-MIDAS estimates produce efficiency gains over DCC-CARR which increase with portfolio size.

Author Keywords: asset allocation, DCC MIDAS, dynamic correlations, forecasting, portfolio risk management, volatility

Using data drawn from the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board's (WSIB) Survey of Workers with Permanent Impairments, this thesis explores if and how the human capital associated with education mitigates the realized work-disabling effects of permanent physical injury. Using Cater's (2000) model of post-injury adaptive behaviour and employment dynamics as the structural, theoretical, and interpretative framework, this thesis jointly studies, by injury type, the effects of education on both the post-injury probability of transitioning from non-employment into employment and the post-injury probability of remaining in employment once employed. The results generally show that, for a given injury type, other things being equal, higher levels of education are associated with higher probabilities of both obtaining and sustaining employment.

Author Keywords: permanent impairment, permanent injury, post-injury employment

Population aging has become a worldwide concern since the nineteenth century. The decrease in birth rate and the increase in life expectancy will make China's population age rapidly. If the growth rate of the number of workers is less than that of the number of retirees, in the long run, there will be fewer workers per retiree. This will apply great pressure to China's public pension system in the next several decades. This is a global problem known as the "pension crisis". In this thesis, a long-term vision for China's urban pension system is presented. Based on the mathematical models and the projections for demographic variables, economic variables and pension scheme variables, we test how the changes in key variables affect the balances of the pension fund in the next 27 years. This thesis applies methods of deterministic and stochastic modeling as well as sensitivity analysis to the problem. Using sensitivity analysis, we find that the pension fund balance is highly sensitive to the changes in retirement age compared with other key variables. Monte Carlo simulations are also used to find the possible distributions of the pension fund balance by the end of the projection period. Finally, according to my analysis, several changes in retirement age are recommended in order to maintain the sustainability of China's urban basic pension scheme.

Author Keywords: China, demographic changes, Monte Carlo simulation, pension fund, sensitivity tests, sustainability