Brown, Andrew

I used 31 years of Semipalmated Plover (Charadrius semipalmatus) population data to assess the effects of vital rates on a local breeding population of plovers in Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. I used three similar Bayesian Integrated Population Models (IPMs), with the last a coupled IPM population viability analysis (PVA) approach to predict the impact of changing spring temperatures on future population size. I estimated adult and juvenile apparent survival, fecundity, immigration rate, and yearly population size estimates, and I found that population growth rate was most highly correlated with immigration and adult apparent survival. Moreover, I found that the population remained relatively stationary with a slight decline in recent years. I also found a significant positive effect of spring average daily minimum temperature on juvenile apparent survival. I used this effect to inform my PVA and to evaluate the risk of quasi-extinction for 20 years after the end of the study. I found a low quasi-extinction risk and a greater probability of the population increasing in the next twenty years when informed by predicted spring temperatures from global climate models. My findings suggest some resilience of this species to one effect of climate change and emphasize the importance of continued monitoring to assess if declines in this species will change as multiple threats to their existence in the sub-arctic progress.

Author Keywords: Bayesian, Climate change, Integrated population model, Population dynamics, Population viability, Semipalmated Plover