Chan, Roshelle

Agricultural and urban land uses have been linked to the recent resurgence of eutrophication and salinization issues in the lower Great Lakes. This thesis examined the relationship between watershed land use and stream nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N), total phosphorus (TP), and chloride (Cl) concentrations across southern Ontario. Using a self-organizing map analysis, the watersheds were classified into eight distinct spatial clusters, representing four agricultural, two urban, and two natural clusters. Agricultural clusters under intensive row crop agriculture exhibited NO3-N and TP concentrations up to twelve and five times higher, respectively, than the most natural-dominated cluster. Urban clusters had Cl concentrations up to nine times greater than the natural-dominated clusters. Three agricultural land use practices, namely continuous corn-soybean rotation, synthetic fertilizer application, and tile drainage, were positively correlated with stream NO3-N concentrations, whereas Cl concentrations increased with urban area and human population density. This thesis also characterized sampling trends of the provincial stream water quality monitoring program and found that sampling frequency has declined since the mid-1990s, while current sites are monitored almost exclusively during the ice-free period. Sampling year-round is critical to capture seasonal variations in NO3-N and Cl, while sampling across a full range of flow conditions is important for describing TP. Exclusion of sampling sites in close proximity of downstream municipal wastewater treatment plants and greenhouses can help isolate and better understand water quality impacts of non-point sources. Although intensive agricultural watersheds in southwestern Ontario draining into Lake Erie remain a priority for research and management, regions experiencing row crop expansion such as along the northern shore of Lake Ontario as well as rapidly urbanizing areas require further attention as these land use shifts will likely increase stream NO3-N and Cl concentrations, placing further pressure on water resources in the lower Great Lakes.

Author Keywords: Chloride, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Self-organizing map, Southern Ontario, Water quality