Walters, Benjamin James

Long-term avian population declines, particularly for the avian insectivore guild, are a conservation concern. With widespread and continuing population trends, climate change and its negative effects on avian food resources is a plausible cross-species driver. My goal was to evaluate whether bottom-up trophic effects of climate change could be influencing avian populations. I used a space-for-time approach to assess the influence of snowpack and soil moisture variability on arthropods and subsequent effects on nest survival. In the 2010 and 2011 growing seasons, I sampled arthropods, soil moisture (soil volumetric water content; VWC), snowpack (snow water equivalent; SWE), forest floor depth (L, F, H layers) and soil texture in conifer plantations and mixed deciduous forest in Southern Ontario's Ganaraska Forest (~4, 400 ha). I used additive linear mixed effects models to assess the responses of arthropod groups' (e.g., order or class) relative biomass (g/day) and abundance (count/day) to those variables. Influences for each arthropod group's biomass and abundance were typically in the same direction. Maximum annual SWE significantly positively influenced most arthropod groups and annual relative difference in VWC positively influenced one quarter. In mixed directions, forest type influenced half of the groups and soil texture and forest floor depth each affected less than one quarter. I then used structural equation models to evaluate relationships between SWE, VWC, the biomass of three arthropod functional guilds, and logistic-exposure model calculated daily nest survival rates for American Robin (Turdus migratorius), Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens), Least Flycatcher (Empidonax minimus), Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla), and Red-eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus). Arthropod guilds included diet-based food, predaceous arthropods and soil-dwelling bioindicators. SWE significantly positively influenced food biomass in all five models and negatively influenced predaceous arthropods in three models. Soil moisture had a mix of positive, negative, and null effects. Eastern Wood-Pewee and Red-eyed Vireo nest survival positively related to food and negatively related to predaceous arthropod biomass. American Robin, Least Flycatcher and Ovenbird nest survival did not appear to be related to arthropod biomasses. Through bottom-up relationships, predicted climate change-induced reductions in snowpack may cause food resource declines and negatively affect some forest breeding bird populations.

Author Keywords: Arthropod biomass, Bottom-up, Forest birds, Nest survival, Path analysis, Precipitation