Arctic breeding shorebirds are often considered alternate or secondary prey to avian and terrestrial predators that primarily feed on cyclic populations of rodents. Predation risk can strongly influence habitat selection; however, there is limited understanding of how nest placement by shorebirds and subsequent risk of nest predation are affected by spatiotemporal patterns involving the indirect effects of alternate prey on predator activity. I examined nest fates of Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) and Dunlin (Calidris alpina) at the southernmost edge of their breeding ranges at Polar Bear Provincial Park, Ontario, using field surveys including direct observations, camera monitors and thermal probes. I used resource selection functions (RSFs) to compare used and available habitat features near shorebird nests. I assessed whether shorebird nest predation was affected by spatial patterns in avian predator activity, habitat, and small mammal alternate prey and annual variation in cyclic small mammal abundance. RSFs confirmed strong habitat selection for graminoid fen habitats with avoidance of tundra heath, presumably to avoid terrestrial predators that may use them as travel corridors. Shorebird nest predation was not affected by the spatial variation in avian predator activity. However, Dunlin nest predation risk was affected by spatial variation in small mammal abundance. Further, the effect was strongest in years consistent with peaks in the small mammal population cycle. These findings highlight the important effects of spatiotemporal variation of alternate prey densities on Arctic-Subarctic food webs, providing insights on the complex relationships affecting shorebird nest success.
Author Keywords: apparent competetion, Dunlin, Empirical Bayesian Kriging, Shorebird, Subarctic, Whimbrel