Hydrologic sciences

Understanding snowpack variability is important as it plays an imperative role in environmental, hydrologic, and atmospheric systems. Research questions related to three linked areas were investigated in this thesis: 1) scaling issues in snow hydrology, 2) forest-snowpack relationships, and 3) methods of integrating snow water equivalent (SWE) into a hydrologic model for a large, forested drainage basin in central Ontario. The first study evaluated differences in SWE across process, measurement, and model scales. Point scale snowpack measurements could be bias corrected using scaling factors derived from a limited number of transect measurements and appropriately stratified point scale measurements may be suitable for replacing transect scale mean SWE when transect data are not possible to collect. Comparison of modelled products to measurements highlighted the importance of understanding the spatial representativeness of in-situ measurements and the processes those measurements represent when validating snow products or assimilating data into models.The second study investigated the efficacy of field-based, and remotely sensed datasets to describe forest structure and resolve forest-snowpack relationships. Canopy cover was highly correlated with melt rate and timing at the site scale however, significant correlations were present in 2016 but not 2017, which was attributed to interannual differences in climate. Peak SWE metrics did not correlate well with forest metrics. This was likely due to mid-winter melt events throughout both study years, where a mix of accumulation and melt processes confounded forest-snowpack relationships. The third study evaluated the accuracy of the Copernicus SWE product and assessed the impact of calibrating and assimilating SWE data on model performance. The bias corrected Copernicus product agreed with measured data and provided a good estimate of mean basin SWE. Calibration of a hydrologic model to subbasin SWE substantially improved modelled SWE performance. Modelled SWE skill was not improved by assimilating SWE into the calibrated model. All models evaluated had similar streamflow performance, indicating streamflow in the study basin can be accurately estimated using a model with a poor representation of SWE. The findings from this work improved knowledge and understanding of snow processes in the hydrologically significant Great Lakes-St Lawrence Forest region of central Ontario.

Author Keywords: data assimilation, hydrologic model, multi-objective calibration, remote sensing, scale, snow

Many communities in Canada rely on water sourced from boreal forest headwaters for their drinking water. The Boreal Shield Ecozone is highly susceptible to climate change which threatens to exacerbate the effects of natural and human-driven disturbances such as wildfire, insect infestation and harvesting on water quality. Therefore, examining source water quality in headwater catchments within the Boreal Shield Ecozone is crucial to elucidating the potential implications of these disturbances to water treatment processes in the context of a changing climate. A synoptic water sampling investigation was conducted to evaluate how dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality and disinfection by-product formation-potential (DBP-FP) quantity varied across space and time in the Algoma region of central Ontario. Over a five-month timeframe (June 2021 - October 2021), 168 streamflow estimates and 176 water samples were collected across 30 catchments (catchment areas from 0.2 - 106.8 km2) which varied in their forest disturbance histories. DOC concentration ([DOC]) ranged from 2.4 - 38.2 mg L-1 and tended to be higher in harvest-dominated sites, while no discernible differences in SUVA254 were observed between catchment types. DOC export estimates ranged from 1.0 - 63.2 g C m-2 over a 141-day period (June 5th - Oct. 23nd, 2021). Fluorescence indices for quantifying DOC composition suggested that all catchments were dominated by humified and terrestrially sourced carbon. DBP-FP values were positively correlated to UV-254 (r = 0.76 - 0.78) and [DOC] (r = 0.85 - 0.88), such that DBP-FP spatiotemporal patterns were strongly coupled to DOC dynamics. Multiple linear regression analysis identified that open water was negatively related to [DOC] and SUVA254 and explained the most variability in their spatiotemporal patterns. In addition, catchment area, which was negatively related to [DOC] and SUVA254, and legacy insect infestation and harvesting disturbance helped improve model explanatory power. Other predictor variables, such as slope, wetland cover, coniferous forest cover and recent forest disturbance (i.e., 5-year harvesting and 5-year insect infestation), showed relatively poor explanatory power. Variability in DOC export estimates may be explained by harvesting disturbance (adjusted r2 = 0.68 - 0.82). The results of this study emphasise that complex processes across the terrestrial-aquatic continuum, which are influenced by several factors, such as runoff, forest disturbance and landscape heterogeneity, govern the spatiotemporal patterns in water quality across boreal headwaters within the Algoma region.

Land cover change has the potential to alter the hydrologic regime from its natural state. Southern Ontario contains the largest and fastest growing urban population in Canada as well as the majority of prime (Class I) agricultural land. Expansions in urban cover at the expense of agricultural land and resultant 'agricultural intensification', including expansion of tile drainage, have unknown effects on watershed hydrology. To investigate this, several streams with a range of landcovers and physiographic characteristics were monitored for two years to compare differences of flashiness and variability of streamflow using several hydrologic metrics. Urban watersheds were usually the flashiest while agriculture had moderate flashiness and natural watersheds were the least flashy across all seasons, signifying that landcover effects were consistent across seasons. Tile drainage increased stream flashiness during wet periods, but minimized the stream response to an extreme rain event in the summer, perhaps due to increases in soil moisture storage. A sixty-year flow analysis showed that flashiness and streamflow increased (p < 0.05) above a development threshold of ~10% of watershed area. Flashiness was also greater in wetter years suggesting that climate shifts may enhance stream variability in developed watersheds.

Author Keywords: Agriculture, Flashiness, Hydrologic Metrics, Hydrologic Regime, Landcover Change, Urban

Stormwater ponds (SWPs) are a common feature in new urban developments where they are designed to minimize runoff peaks from impervious surfaces and retain particulate matter. As a consequence, SWPs can be efficient at retaining particle-bound nutrients, but may be less efficient at retaining nutrients that are present primarily in the dissolved form, like nitrogen (N). However, the forms of nutrients (e.g. particulate vs. dissolved) likely differ with hydrologic and seasonal conditions and few studies have examined year-round differences in nutrient forms and concentrations at urban SWPs. In order to contrast total suspended solids (TSS), phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) levels between low and high flow conditions, sampling was conducted at an urban SWP in Peterborough, ON between November 2012 and October 2013. Only an increase in TSS levels at the outflow between low and high flow conditions was observed, as well as a decrease in TSS levels at the outflow compared to Inflow 1 under low flow conditions. Nitrate-N (NO3-N) was the dominant form of N entering the pond under all flow conditions, whereas the fraction of total-P (TP) that was particulate increased under high flow conditions. Nevertheless, the dissolved fraction of TP was consistently high in these urban inlets. Only NO3-N was significantly greater in the inflows than outflow and only under low flow conditions. Increases in the proportions of organic-N and ammonium-N

in the outlet suggest that biological processing is important for N retention.

Author Keywords: nitrogen, Ontario, phosphorus, stormwater ponds, total suspended solids

Winter nutrient export from forested catchments is extremely variable from year-to-year and across the landscape of south-central Ontario. Understanding the controls on this variability is critical, as what happens during the winter sets up the timing and nature of the spring snowmelt, the major period of export for water and nutrients from seasonally snow-covered forests. Furthermore, winter processes are especially vulnerable to changes in climate, particularly to shifts in precipitation from snow to rain as air temperatures rise. The objective of this thesis was to assess climatic and topographic controls on variability in stream nutrient export from a series of forested catchments in south-central Ontario. The impacts of climate on the timing and magnitude of winter stream nutrient export, with particular focus on the impact of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events was investigated through a) analysis of long-term hydrological, chemical and meteorological records and b) high frequency chemical and isotopic measurements of stream and snow samples over two winters. The relationship between topography and variability in stream chemistry among catchments was investigated through a) a series of field and laboratory incubations to measure rates and discern controls on nitrogen mineralization and nitrification and b) analysis of high resolution spatial data to assess relationships between topographic metrics and seasonal stream chemistry. Warmer winters with more ROS events were shown to shift the bulk of nitrate (NO3-N) export earlier in the winter at the expense of spring export; this pattern was not observed in other nutrients [i.e. dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total phosphorus (TP), sulphate (SO4), calcium (Ca)]. Hydrograph separation revealed the majority of ROS flow came from baseflow, but the NO3-N concentrations in rainfall and melting snow were so high that the majority of NO3-N export was due to these two sources. Other nutrient concentrations did not show such a great separation between sources, and thus event export of these nutrients was not as great. Proportionally, catchments with varying topography responded similarly to ROS events, but the absolute magnitude of export varied substantially, due to differences in baseflow NO3-N concentrations. Field and laboratory incubations revealed differences in rates of net NO3-N production between wetland soils and upland soils, suggesting that topographic differences amongst catchments may be responsible for differences in baseflow NO3-N. Spatial analysis of digital elevation models revealed strong relationships between wetland coverage and DOC and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) concentrations in all seasons, but relationships between topography and NO3-N were often improved by considering only the area within 50 or 100m of the stream channel. This suggests nutrient cycling processes occurring near the stream channel may exert a stronger control over NO3-N stream outflow chemistry. Overall, topography and climate exert strong controls over spatial and temporal variability in stream chemistry at forested catchments; it is important to consider the interaction of these two factors when predicting the effects of future changes in climate or deposition.

Author Keywords: biogeochemistry, forest, nitrate, south-central Ontario, stream chemistry, winter

This thesis focuses on the design of a modelling framework consisting of loose-coupling of a sequence of spatial and process models and procedures necessary to predict future flood events for the years 2030 and 2050 in Tabasco Mexico. Temperature and precipitation data from the Hadley Centers Coupled Model (HadCM3), for those future years were downscaled using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM4.2.9). These data were then used along with a variety of digital spatial data and models (current land use, soil characteristics, surface elevation and rivers) to parameterize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and predict flows. Flow data were then input into the Hydrological Engineering Centers-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. This model mapped the areas that are expected to be flooded based on the predicted flow values. Results from this modelling sequence generate images of flood extents, which are then ported to an online tool (ADAPT) for display. The results of this thesis indicate that with current prediction of climate change the city of Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico, and the surrounding area will experience a substantial amount of flooding. Therefore there is a need for adaptation planning to begin immediately.

Author Keywords: Adaptation Planning, Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, Flood Planning, Simulation Modelling

Water storage is a fundamental component of drainage basins, controlling the synchronization between precipitation input and streamflow output. The ability of a drainage basin to store water and regulate streamflow may mediate sensitivity to climate and land cover change. There is currently no agreement on the best way to quantify basin storage. This study compares results of a combined hydrometric and isotopic approach for characterizing inter-basin differences in storage across the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in southern Ontario. The ratio of the standard deviation of the stable isotope signature of streamflow relative to that of precipitation has been shown to be inversely proportional to mean water transit times, with smaller ratios indicating longer water transit times and implying greater storage. Stable isotope standard deviation ratios were inversely related to baseflow index values. Basins demonstrating longer transit times were associated with hydrological characteristics that promote infiltration and recharge of storage.

Author Keywords: baseflow, basin storage, climate change, mean transit time, Oak Ridges Moraine, stable isotopes

Water balance models calculate water storage and movement within drainage basins, a primary concern for many hydrologists. A Thornthwaite water balance model (H2OBAAS) has shown poor accuracy in predicting low flows in the Petawawa River basin in Ontario, so lake storage and winter snow processes were investigated to improve the accuracy of the model. Lake storage coefficients, represented by the slopes of lake stage vs. lake runoff relationships, were estimated for 19 lakes in the Petawawa River basin and compared on a seasonal and inter-lake basis to determine the factors controlling lake runoff behaviour. Storage coefficients varied between seasons, with spring having the highest coefficients, summer and fall having equal magnitude, and winter having the lowest coefficients. Storage coefficients showed positive correlation with lake watershed area, and negative correlation with lake surface area during summer, fall, and winter. Lake storage was integrated into the H2OBAAS and improved model accuracy, especially in late summer, with large increases in LogNSE, a statistical measure sensitive to low flows. However, varying storage coefficients with respect to seasonal lake storage, watershed area, and surface area did not improve runoff predictions in the model. Modified precipitation partitioning and snowmelt methods using monthly minimum and maximum temperatures were incorporated into the H2OBAAS and compared to the original methods, which used only average temperatures. Methods using temperature extremes greatly improved simulations of winter runoff and snow water equivalent, with the precipitation partitioning threshold being the most important model parameter. This study provides methods for improving low flow accuracy in a monthly water balance model through the incorporation of simple snow processes and lake storages.

Author Keywords: Lake Storage, Model Calibration, Monthly Water Balance, Petawawa River, Precipitation Partitioning, Snow Melt

The Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a key hydrogeologic feature in southern Ontario. Previous work has emphasized the importance of depression-focused recharge (DFR) for the timing and location of groundwater recharge to the ORM's aquifers. However, the significance of DFR has not been empirically demonstrated and the relative control of land cover, topography, and surficial geology on DFR is unclear. The potential for DFR was examined for topographic depressions under forested and open, agricultural land covers with similar soils and surficial geology. Recharge (R) was estimated at the crest and base of each depression during the 2012-13 and 2013-14 winter-spring periods (~December – May) using both a 1-dimensional water balance approach and a surface-applied Br- tracer. At each depression, air temperatures, precipitation, snow depth and water equivalent, soil water contents, soil freezing, and depression surface-water levels were monitored and soil properties (texture, bulk density, porosity, and hydraulic conductivity) were measured. Both forested and agricultural land covers experienced soil freezing; however, concrete frost did not develop in the more porous and conductive forest soils. Concrete frost in agricultural depressions resulted in overland flow, episodic ponding and drainage of rain-on-snow and snowmelt inputs. Recharge was an order-of-magnitude greater at the base of open depressions. Observations of ponding (as evidence of DFR) were made at an additional 14 depressions with varying land cover, geometry, and soil type during the 2014 snowmelt period and measurements of pond depth, pond volume, land cover (i.e., percentage of agricultural vs. forested cover), depression geometry (i.e., contributing area, average slope, relief ratio) and soil texture were made. Ponding was restricted to depressions under mostly agricultural cover and a positive, non-linear relationship between pond volume and average slope was shown for sites with similar land cover and soil texture, but neither pond depth nor volume were related to any other depression characteristics. Results suggest that DFR is a significant hydrologic process during winter and spring under agricultural land cover on the ORM. Topographic depressions under agricultural land cover on the ORM crest may serve as critical recharge "hot spots" during winter and spring, and the ability of the unsaturated zone beneath these depressions to modify the chemistry of recharging water deserves further attention.

Author Keywords: Concrete frost, Depression-focused groundwater recharge, Oak Ridges Moraine, Ponding, Topographic depressions, Water balance

This study seeks to clarify the way in which the differing canopy characteristics among tree species influence the partitioning of precipitation, and therefore the source of water available for plant water uptake, in the Plastic Lake catchment near Dorset, ON. Three dominant tree species were compared: red oak (Quercus rubra), eastern white pine (Pinus strobus), and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis). Above-canopy precipitation, throughfall, stemflow, and soil water content were monitored weekly from June 2016 until October 2016 and the 18O and 2H isotopic signatures of each were analyzed. Plant water and bulk soil water samples were also collected from five trees of each species at five stages of the growing season to compare the isotopic signature of xylem water to that of their surrounding soils. Both plant water and bulk soil water displayed evidence of isotopic fractionation; however, plant water was more depleted in δ2H and δ18O than bulk soil water. Water interacting with the tree canopies as throughfall and stemflow did not display significant evidence of isotopic fractionation. This suggests that the vegetation could have accessed an isotopically distinct source of water stored within the soil or that an unknown isotopic fractionation process occurred throughout this study.